← The Light - PTM Store Championship
Fire Crux MerlinTier 2
at The Light - PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.1%
avg ELO -8.6 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1254
· median 1254
· range 1254–1254
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1156
Q1 1243
Q3 1458
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Fractal | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Zander | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
